France overtakes Russia as the second largest arms exporter, and the US further extends its lead in world sales, according to a survey by the Swedish institute Sipri, which specializes in military spending.
The war in Ukraine is having a significant impact on the global arms trade, and in more ways than one. The think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) compared the period from 2019 to 2023 with the period from 2014 to 2018 and identified several changes, some of them dramatic.
For example, the volume of the global arms trade decreased by 3.3% compared to 2014-18. However, Europe’s arms imports have almost doubled, mainly due to the war in Ukraine. The majority of weapons bought by Europe, 55%, came from the US. This is 20 percentage points more than in the period from 2014 to 2018, a clear sign that Europe has become even more dependent on the United States.
US extends lead
And mainly due to the increase in exports to Europe, the US managed to increase its global arms exports by 17%. Overall, the US share of the international arms trade increased significantly, from 34% to 42%. The US supplied defense equipment to 107 countries around the world, more than in any previous five-year period. Here, too, it is an isolated leader.
“The US has expanded its global role as an arms supplier, and this is an important aspect of its foreign policy,” writes Sipri analyst Mathew George. He points out that this is happening at a time when “US economic and geopolitical dominance is being challenged by some emerging economies”.
Ukraine was the biggest importer in 2023
Not surprisingly, among European countries, Ukraine has dramatically increased its arms imports. If in the 2014-18 period the country was still a small importer, partly because it produced a lot of weapons and therefore didn’t depend much on imports, in the 2019-23 period (the Russian war of aggression began in 2022), Ukraine became the fourth largest importer in the world, after India, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. An increase of around 6,600%.
If only the year 2023 is considered, Ukraine was even the largest arms importer in the world. However, the term “importer” is somewhat misleading, as deliveries to Ukraine are not primarily donations of defense equipment, but sales.
The main arms suppliers to Ukraine in the period from 2019 to 2023 were the USA, with a share of 39%, followed by Germany (14%) and Poland (13%).
Russia lags behind
The world’s top five arms exporters remain the USA, France, Russia, China and Germany. However, the order has changed compared to 2014-18, and this is also related to the war in Ukraine.
France took second place from Russia. While Russian exports fell by 53%, French exports grew by 47%. The number of countries receiving Russian defense equipment has also fallen dramatically. While in 2019, 31 countries received weapons from Moscow, in 2023 there were only 12, with India and China being by far the most important.
These are the two countries that, also in other products such as oil and gas, have no inhibitions about continuing to negotiate with Russia. “In other cases, the US and European countries have exerted pressure on potential buyers of Russian arms,” explains Pieter Wezeman, one of the authors of the report. He cites the example of Egypt, which wanted to buy Russian fighter jets, was pressured by the US not to do so and is now turning to France to buy fighter jets.
French independence strategy
Wezeman explains France’s rise as follows: “France has adopted a policy of strategic sovereignty. In other words, it wants to have military power whenever it needs it, without depending on other countries’ weapons. To do this, it needs a war industry. To maintain it, it needs exports, otherwise it would be too expensive.”
Over the last ten years in particular, France’s military export sector has been very successful. The Rafale fighter jet is selling well, as are the submarines and frigates from French shipyards. The Rafale’s biggest customer has been India, which has been buying from both Russia and Western countries.
African imports fall
While Europe has almost doubled its arms imports, Africa’s have halved. In all other regions of the world, the changes were minimal. In the case of Africa, the decline is mainly due to the significant reduction in imports by the two main buyers: Algeria imported 77% less defense equipment, and Morocco 46% less.
Africa’s most important arms supplier is Russia, followed by the US and China. Africa therefore remains a region that buys a lot of Russian weapons and where Russia continues to expand its military presence.
Submarine is German export success
Germany remains in fifth place on the list of top exporters. The main buying region was the Middle East. However, Germany’s arms exports fell by 14%. “However, the decline is relative because the previous five-year period was exceptionally successful due to some large orders, especially for submarines,” says Wezeman.
In isolation, 2023 was a particularly good year for the German defense sector. “Of course, this has to do with arms shipments to Ukraine,” says Wezeman. “But also, for example, with the export of submarines to Singapore and frigates and corvettes to Israel and Egypt.”