Gaza city is last bastion of “Hamas terrorists”, but also home to more than 1 million Palestinian refugees. Israeli military campaign is the target of criticism, safe evacuation plans provoke skepticism.
(DW) On Sunday night (11/02), covered by massive aerial bombardments, Israel’s military forces carried out a surprise attack on the town of Rafah, in the besieged Gaza Strip, freeing two Israeli-Argentines, kidnapped by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas during the October 7 attacks.
The president of Argentina, Javier Milei, thanked Israel for rescuing the hostages. According to the Gaza health authorities, the air strikes killed 67 Palestinian civilians or more, as well as destroying several residential buildings and at least one mosque.
In an interview with the American TV network ABC News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he intends to “target the remaining terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is their last bastion”. This would indicate that a massive ground incursion is imminent. Plans to do so have sparked international criticism of Israel, with humanitarian agencies and key allies calling for restraint.
Why has Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza?
The militant group Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union, Israel, Germany and others. On October 7, 2023, it launched a series of surprise attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip. As well as causing 1,200 deaths, according to Israeli estimates, Hamas took around 240 hostages to Gaza.
Tel Aviv responded with an air and ground offensive against Hamas in this enclave, part of which has been under the control of the Islamist group since 2007. So far, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, the military campaign has killed more than 28,000 Palestinians, and 1.9 million civilians have been forced to leave their homes. The UN estimates that 85% of Palestinians living in Gaza have been internally displaced.
What would be the effects of a ground offensive on the population of Rafah?
Since October 7, Israel has gradually expanded its ground operations in the Gaza Strip towards the south, leaving Rafah as one of the last refuges for more than half of the 2.3 million Palestinians trying to escape the violence.
The city’s population, which was 300,000 before the war, has exploded to 1.5 million. Many refugees live in makeshift camps and United Nations shelters.
Rafah is located along the border with Egypt, adjacent to the only crossing still partially accessible from the besieged Gaza Strip. Cairo has been tightening its border security over fears that Israeli operations will cause mass migration of Gaza residents into its territory.
On Sunday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned that a continuation of the escalation in Rafah would have “disastrous consequences”. If the ground offensive continues, his government is threatening to withdraw from a decades-old peace agreement with Tel Aviv.
Are there safe zones in northern Gaza?
In the meantime, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Palestinians willing to leave Rafah would have “safe passage” to “areas we have liberated” north of the city, adding that “we are drawing up a detailed plan”, the components of which have not yet been made public.
It is unclear where these safe zones would be located, whether they would be suitable for hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees and how safe passage would be guaranteed for them.
The United Nations satellite center Unosat estimates that 30% of all structures in Gaza have been damaged since the beginning of the Israeli military campaign against Hamas. The “most significant increase in damage” would be in the north-central province of Gaza and Khan Yunis in the south.
According to another estimate, by Corey Scher of the City University of New York and Jamon van den Hoek of Oregon State University, more than half of Gaza’s buildings have been destroyed.
How does the US respond to an offensive on Rafah?
On Sunday, US President Joe Biden told Netanyahu that “a military operation in Rafah must not proceed without a plausible and executable plan to ensure the safety and support of the more than 1 million sheltered there”.
Although the US has been assisting Israel in its campaign to eradicate Hamas, in recent weeks the Democrat has repeatedly called for restraint. In December, he warned that Tel Aviv risked losing support due to “indiscriminate bombing” in the Palestinian enclave. In February, Biden commented to journalists that “the conduct of the reaction in the Gaza Strip is overstepping the mark”.
What is the European Union’s reaction?
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, expressed concern that an Israeli ground offensive against Rafah could lead to “an unspeakable humanitarian catastrophe and serious tensions with Egypt”. “Resuming negotiations to free the hostages and suspending hostilities is the only way to avoid a bloodbath,” he wrote on Saturday on X (formerly Twitter).
At a press conference on Monday. Borrell expressed skepticism about Netanyahu’s promises to remove civilians from Rafah: “They’re going to evacuate them… where? To the moon?”
Will an offensive on Rafah affect the hostage negotiations?
Last weekend, a Hamas official said that an Israeli ground offensive would “detonate” the ongoing negotiations for the release of the hostages.
Of the 240 hostages taken by Israel on October 7, 112 have already been released. The whereabouts of around 130 others are unknown. Israeli authorities believe that 30 of them are dead.
*** Translated by DEFCONPress FYI Team ***