MP and Arida are pieces in the Congress game – One cannot say that the market’s “enthusiasm” for the possibility that Haddad is chosen for the Treasury, but brings with him Persio Arida as the “other side of the coin”, and that Lula opts for a Provisional Measure to take the Bolsa Família off the ceiling for a year, instead of the PEC, is unfounded.
Haddad has a moderate profile within the PT and dialogues with Arida’s economic and political current. It is likely that he will bring names like that of the economist to his team or form a “double team” in Planning, which otherwise would repeat the Palocci model.
Taking into account the demands of Congress for a core capable of articulating the PEC, enforcing the commitments made by the government, corroborated by a petista of high plumage – and very close to Lula – Jacques Wagner, it is clear that this movement is advancing.
At the same time, the fact that this solution is politically driven and, in a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, shows good acceptance by economic agents, makes the process more palatable to Lula.
The Family Allowance via MP also makes sense, corresponding to a line suggested from the beginning by the PT and openly defended by Renan Calheiros as a way of not starting the government by “handing over the rings” to the Centrão – read Arthur Lira. The tactic would aim, precisely, to win in the possible, but without anticipating the formation of a base in Congress, via the negotiation of positions, spaces and secret budget, as a result of the PEC.
The greatest risk, here, would be that this option would imply a confrontation with Lira in the election for the House, but it is not imperative that one initiative is articulated to the other.
Still, both hypotheses – and especially the second one – are part, today, of a game of public and behind-the-scenes pressures. The centrons and part of the “neo allies” in Congress are trying to charge higher prices with more immediate signs that the PT will cede power.
The future government is trying to react by showing that, if it is walled off, it has the conditions to change the course of events and complicate the game. The MP functions, therefore, more as a negotiation tactic than as a final objective – even though it may become one. The market’s reaction, within this scope, favors the government’s “baggage”.
The Moraes effect and Bolsonaro’s reaction
– Alexandre de Moraes’ decision, fining PL, Republicans and PP R$ 22 million, will have a double effect:
As sought by President Bolsonaro, it will give gas to the militancy, amplifying the TSE’s discourse of political censorship and persecution. The problem is that, in order to maintain this momentum with the approach of Lula’s inauguration, other movements of an institutional nature will be needed. And/or the direct entrance of Bolsonaro on the scene, which may occur with his presence in one of the protests, in front of military bases.
The manifestation of Vice-President Mourão has some weight in this sense, above all by keeping alive the illusions about the positioning of the Armed Forces. But this is very little, since the senator-elect has not made any military associations or preached any ruptures. He is acting, rather, as a politician;
It may cause an initial “split” in the performance of the trio of parties that support Bolsonaro in Parliament. If the tone of the Republicans, initially supported by the PP, of dissociating themselves from the lawsuit filed by the PL – and, consequently, from the Moraes fine – is maintained, the base of a future opposition will weaken from the start. This does not mean that they will abandon Bolsonaro, nor that the president will cease to have great popular strength.
But it would show that, while the PL is more committed to a parliamentary opposition (especially since it has a majority very closely linked to the president, personally) the other parties will be open to composing with Lula. Including on the PEC or variations of it.
As Highlights has reiterated, however, Lira’s signals are lacking for the picture to become clearer.
*** Translated by the DEFCONPress FYI Team ***