With the Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2023 stalled, internal tensions are rising in Kiev and Western solidarity is showing cracks. The Russians are maintaining military pressure as the war enters another winter.
(DW) On February 24, 2023, the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, President Volodimir Zelenski praised the Ukrainians’ resistance and expressed confidence: “We know that 2023 will be the year of our victory!”
In those days, hopes of a Ukrainian victory were indeed high, boosted by the reconquest of territory and the supply of modern weapons and equipment by the West, such as the American Patriot missile defense system, the German Leopard 2 tanks and the British Challenger 2. There was a lot of talk about the start of the spring counteroffensive.
But ten months on, the year is ending with a completely different perspective: the counter-offensive in Ukraine has stalled, with only modest progress. This reality was acknowledged in November by the commander-in-chief of the Kiev Armed Forces, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. “As in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us at a standstill,” he told The Economist.
This statement was the first sign of friction between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, sparking speculation in the national press that the head of the military might be removed and making it clear that Ukraine is not getting the results it expected from its counter-offensive.
Delay in launching the counter-offensive
The counter-offensive was only launched, belatedly, at the beginning of June, after months of preparations. Ukrainian troops attacked the Russian forces on three axes – one in the east and two in the south.
The aim was to split the Russian army in two and cut off its supply lines to Crimea. It was an ambitious plan. After months of intense and costly fighting, Ukraine managed to make some gains – but slowly and painfully.
The battle for the village of Robotyne in the south was symbolic of these difficulties. Ukrainian forces encountered well-prepared Russian defenses – with dense minefields, mazes of trenches, barbed wire and anti-tank ditches.
“The battles are fierce, but we are moving forward, and that’s the main thing. I thank our soldiers for every Ukrainian flag that is now returning to its rightful place,” Zelenski said at the time.
When the Ukrainian flag was raised in Robotyne at the end of August, the Ukrainian army had already suffered heavy losses. Zelenski said that Ukraine had waited too long for Western weapons. The delay gave Russia more time to prepare the battlefield.
Fissures in Western support
President Vladimir Putin appears to be hopeful that Russia’s relentless military pressure, combined with changing Western political dynamics and a detour of world attention to the war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, will withdraw support from Ukraine after almost two years of war.
“As far as the Russian leadership is concerned, the confrontation with the West has reached a turning point: the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, Russia is more confident than ever, and the cracks in Western solidarity are spreading,” notes researcher Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, speaking to the AP news agency.
A billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine is stalled in the US Congress, as Republicans insist on linking the release of more money to changes in border security between the US and Mexico, opposed by Democrats.
The European Union failed to agree last week on a package of 50 billion euros in financial aid that Ukraine desperately needs due to the blockade by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, known for his closeness to Putin.
“If the West simply assumes that there is stagnation and reduces its commitment to Ukraine, Russian advantages will increase because Russia does not accept stagnation,” says military expert Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment.
There is fighting, but little is changing
In the midst of these signs of Western support wearing off, Russia has increased its pressure on Ukrainian forces in various parts of the more than 1,000-kilometer front. “Since October, the Russian military has been trying to seize the initiative in a number of places on the front,” comments Kofman.
The situation on the front line is more dynamic than the word stagnation suggests. Russia continues to organize attacks, however unsophisticated, and some analysts accuse the West of delaying the supply of weapons and equipment.
The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, after five months of exhausting fighting, is having to rebuild its forces and combat effectiveness. “The Ukrainian forces, although motivated, are exhausted. They have lost many units of action. They have lost many troops with assault capabilities,” says Kofman.
Russia also maintains a large advantage in terms of personnel, despite having suffered numerous losses. A declassified US intelligence report estimates that the war in Ukraine has cost Russia 315,000 soldiers killed or wounded, or 87% of the personnel it had when the conflict began.
Days later, Putin declared that Russia has 617,000 troops in Ukraine, a number that many Russian war bloggers consider to be far short of what is needed to penetrate deep into Ukraine. Zelenski says his ground forces number around 600,000.
Russia also continues to be able to produce missiles, tanks and, according to Ukrainian estimates, up to 1 million 152 mm artillery shells a month. The US said that Moscow had also started receiving ammunition under an agreement signed with North Korea in September.
New battlefields
One area where Russia has maintained constant pressure is the north-eastern city of Kupiansk, a strategically important railway hub that Moscow had captured at the start of the war and then lost in the Ukrainian counter-offensive of September 2022. Although Russian forces failed to make any significant gains in the area, Ukraine had to deploy a significant force to protect the city.
In October, Russian troops also launched an offensive around Avdiivka, a town near Donetsk, the center of the region that was seized by Moscow-backed rebels in 2014 and illegally annexed by Russia in 2022, along with three other Ukrainian regions.
*** Translated by DEFCONPress FYI Team ***