A Ukrainian artillery officer describes the situation as dramatic. Without US supplies, troops are unable to return Russian fire, Putin’s soldiers are advancing, and the front is in danger of collapsing.
The artillery officer on the front line in eastern Ukraine quickly sums up the situation: “Without artillery ammunition, the whole front is doomed,” the man tells DW. His current descriptions of what is happening on the front are disheartening in the face of the lack of ammunition suffered by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The officer wishes to remain anonymous. The rank, name and position of the commander of a Ukrainian artillery unit are known to DW.
Massive Russian fire
“Losses will increase because it is not possible to adequately return fire with fire.” The Russian attackers, on the other hand, can fire massively. Ukrainian soldiers are being covered with barrage fire from Russian artillery. Russian fighter jets bomb Ukrainian positions with glider bombs – fired from a safe distance, further back from the front line, out of reach of Ukrainian air defenses, which, in any case, are equally insufficient.
“At some point we will find ourselves in a situation where no one else will be able to defend the front – everyone will be dead or wounded,” says the officer. And he makes it clear what he expects. The result would be “the loss of positions and a collapsed front”.
The descriptions of the Ukrainian front are supported by a recent analysis by the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW). According to it, the Russian attackers are “advancing slowly but steadily in several sectors of the front”.
Russians gain area the size of Detroit
According to an ISW calculation from mid-April, the Russian Armed Forces have conquered “more than 360 square kilometers since the beginning of the year – an area the size of Detroit,” the largest city in the US state of Michigan, writes ISW in a recent analysis.
In the current situation, the risk of Ukraine losing to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops is the highest since the war began in 2022, according to ISW. In other words, without a substantial supply of arms and ammunition from the Western countries that support Kiev. CIA Director Bill Burns and Christopher Cavoli, commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe, made this clear in statements given this month in Washington.
“There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians will lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least that Putin will reach a position where he can dictate the terms of a political settlement,” Burns said during a speech he gave in the US capital, according to US media reports.
Reaction only possible with US supplies
The decisive thing, according to Burns, is for the US to deliver supplies quickly now. This, in turn, would give Ukraine a good chance of “fighting back” this year.
The fact that CIA chief Burns is currently talking about “resisting” points to the hope that Kiev will at some point be able to increase its war production to such an extent that Ukraine will be able to defend itself in the long term. And also that an air force will be established through Western assistance. Since 2023, Ukrainian pilots have been trained to fly US F-16 fighters. But the training has been going on for much longer than NATO military experts anticipated.
In response to a written question from DW about the operational capability of the F-16 and the progress of training Ukrainian pilots in European NATO countries such as Romania, the UK or France, the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman did not want to answer in detail. “This is a very sensitive issue,” he wrote, arguing that he could not say anything about it.
Ukrainian pilots have low level of English
The commander of US forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, recently said during a visit to Washington that Ukrainian pilots generally lack English skills.
Like CIA chief Burns, Cavoli paints a bleak picture of the situation of Ukrainians at the front. Although he “can’t predict the future, I can make simple calculations,” said the general of the US military’s European Command (EUCOM). “In my experience of more than 37 years in the US military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses.”
The aid package for Ukraine, blocked for months by the Republicans in the US Congress, amounts to 61 billion dollars. In addition to the money for the Ukrainian budget and economic aid, 51.7 billion dollars are earmarked for the supply of ammunition and weapons, according to a press release issued by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal after his recent visit to the US.
Ukrainian successes overshadow the real situation
How vital the rapid supply of US ammunition is for Ukraine at this stage of the war is a fact repeatedly overshadowed by reports of Ukrainian successes, especially on social media platforms. This month, the country announced the downing of a Russian Tupolev Tu-22M3 supersonic bomber for the first time. Radar positions on the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, which Moscow uses to organize supplies for its troops in southern Ukraine, were also hit again.
However, these attacks appear to be mere pinpricks compared to the enormous Russian pressure at the front and from the air, such as the recent attacks on the city of Chernihiv, 70 kilometers northeast of the capital Kiev, or the regular shelling of Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv, in the northeast, on the border with Russia.
Putin wants to take Chassiv Yar before May 9
After a visit to the battlefront, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian soldiers, Oleksandr Syrskyj, wrote on the Telegram messaging service that Russia is currently focused on “breaking through our defenses west of Bachmut, gaining access to the Siversky-Donets-Donbass canal, capturing the settlement of Chasiv Yar and creating the conditions for a further advance towards the Kramatorsk area.”
The settlement of Chasiv Yar is on a hill that offers advantages to the Ukrainian defenders. Syrskyj writes in Telegram that the capture of this position is Putin’s order to the Russian Armed Forces, “by May 9”. That’s when Putin celebrates the anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
German security expert and Ukraine specialist Nico Lange wrote in a recent analysis that Ukraine “cannot hold the front line in the east, but can only slow down the Russian advance”.
Especially through the use of drones equipped with explosive devices. “But drones are no substitute for artillery,” warns the artillery officer interviewed by DW in eastern Ukraine. The decisive factor is whether he and his men will receive ammunition supplies now – as soon as possible.
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