Autocratic pariahs North Korea and Russia meet for possible military cooperation. Cold War weapons on one side, food and fuel on the other. The important thing is to instill insecurity in our enemies.
(DW) Russian President Vladimir Putin greeted his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong Un, on Wednesday afternoon (13/09) at the Vostochny Cosmodrome spaceport in eastern Russia. Several governments and analysts fear that the subsequent summit between the two will conclude with agreements to exchange arms and military technology.
A week ago, White House security spokesman John Kirby said that the Kremlin was in the process of acquiring “millions of missiles and artillery shells from North Korea for use in Ukraine”. Later, however, he pointed out that there were no indications that the deal had been closed, nor that these weapons would be used.
A few months ago, the United States reported that North Korea had already supplied artillery ammunition to the Russian Armed Forces, whose arsenals are being depleted as the military aggression against Ukraine continues. Any arms deal between Pyongyang and Moscow would be a violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions – ironically also some previously upheld by the Russians.
“My impression is that both sides want military equipment and technology, but much of the point is simply to scare their rivals with speculation about the new weapons and capabilities they are suddenly going to acquire,” analyzes Russian international relations professor Yakov Zinberg of Tokyo’s Kokushikan University.
“There have also been several reports that Russia can’t produce enough ammunition for its troops in Ukraine, and we know that North Korea has lots of stockpiles. So the prospect of Pyongyang supplying ammunition, and potentially also weapons, is intended to worry Ukraine and its allies.”
Arms in exchange for wheat?
In the absence of immediate confirmation of the content of the two leaders’ talks, or what agreements they might have reached, analysts suggest that the details will never be announced, in order to increase the confusion surrounding the military alliance that is being announced.
For spokesman Kirby, the potential arms deal merely reveals “how desperate Putin is getting”: “It’s an indication of how much his defense industrial establishment is suffering because of this war, and of the degree of desperation.”
Russia needs to secure additional ammunition for its artillery, even though the shells that North Korea has stockpiled are based on models from half a century ago. The country kept the arms factories supplied by the Soviet Union during the Korean War (1950-1953), and has been building up its stocks ever since.
For Joseph Dempsey, a defense researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia having access to North Korean arsenals from the Cold War era “may prolong the conflict [in Ukraine], but it is unlikely to change the outcome”. These less advanced weapons do not lend themselves to precision attacks, but could be employed in mass offensives against Ukraine’s military positions and civilian infrastructure.
For its part, North Korea has suffered food shortages since another poor harvest, and fuel shortages since the initial international sanctions in 2006 were tightened in 2017. It is therefore possible that Kim will ask the Russians for supplies of food and fuel in order to remedy this shortage.
As the Asian country is also trying to produce more cutting-edge satellites, it may seek to benefit from Russian materials and technology for launching long-range missiles, which is partly identical to that used to launch satellites.
Moscow is unlikely to open up to Pyongyang
Nuclear weapons technology could also be on the North Korean shopping list, including the know-how to enable a nuclear warhead mounted on an intercontinental ballistic missile to safely re-enter the atmosphere – a challenge that, according to analysts, Kim’s scientists have yet to overcome.
The list could include many more items, but it’s unlikely that Putin will reveal all of his secrets, says Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, because “even a desperate war machine won’t trade its military ‘crown jewels’ for some silly ammunition”.
The North Korean leader has already declared that he intends to expand the nuclear capabilities of the national navy – another area in which the Kremlin can be a powerful ally. “North Korea has the raw ammunition that Putin needs for his illegal war in Ukraine, while Moscow has submarine, ballistic and satellite technologies capable of helping Pyongyang leap over the hurdles imposed by economic sanctions,” confirms Easley.
For the Ewha Womans University professor, despite being held responsible for crimes against humanity and considered international pariahs, Putin and Kim want to present victories to their respective national publics and “appear to be normal statesmen”.
He considers it unlikely that Pyongyang and Moscow will disclose the full extent of the cooperation, since it involves breaches of international law, but they should “echo each other’s propaganda about sovereignty, security and humanitarian solidarity”.
The Kremlin may also propose joint military exercises with North Korea and China, in order to increase pressure on South Korea and Japan – thus signaling that it has a price to pay to join the US on Ukraine and the territorial disputes in the Pacific Ocean.
However, Easley doesn’t believe that the North will agree to take part in such maneuvers, “because it doesn’t want to reveal its weaknesses in training and equipment, not even to Moscow and Beijing”. “Trust is also so low between Russia, North Korea and China that a real alliance between the three is neither credible nor sustainable,” he concludes.