The current picture is analogous to April 4, 1949: the free West is uniting against the threat coming from the East, under the nuclear shield of the USA. Much depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and Russia remains the greatest danger.
(DW) 75 candles burn on the birthday cake of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The oldest military alliance in the world and the only one formed by democratic states, it remains attractive: founded on April 4, 1949 with 12 members, today it brings together another 20, the most recent being Finland and Sweden, seeking to protect themselves from Russia. Ukraine and Georgia have also been granted membership for the same reason.
NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe began 25 years ago with Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, former members of the Warsaw Pact, the military alliance of the Communist Bloc. In 1999, when NATO turned 50, the mood was euphoric: it was believed that the Cold War had been won and Russia was seen as a partner.
Two years earlier, Moscow had assured in a treaty that it had no restrictions on the military league’s eastward expansion. This was followed in 2004 by the accession of the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. In 2009, Albania and Croatia joined; and in 2017, Montenegro and North Macedonia, both part of the former Yugoslavia.
However, in the early 2000s, Russian President Vladimir Putin began to criticize NATO’s eastern course. He claimed that when the German Democratic Republic (GDR) joined the alliance in 1990, in the course of reunification, the Soviet Union was promised that the expansion would not touch the former Soviet zone of influence. However, this was never signed in writing.
In 2008, NATO promised in principle to accept Georgia and Ukraine. It was then, at the latest, that Putin activated his strategic mechanisms: after occupying parts of Georgia, in 2014 he annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and began to ostensibly support the pro-Russian separatists in the east of the neighboring country. In 2022 the general invasion of Ukraine began. Despite this – or perhaps for this reason – NATO keeps the door open for new members.
“NATO is stronger than ever”?
In essence, the situation is the same as when NATO was founded on April 4, 1949, in Washington: the “free West” seeks to confront the growing threat from the east by military means, with mutual support, under the shield of US nuclear weapons. It’s the Cold War reloaded.
“In terms of the threat situation and NATO’s reaction, everything looks the same as before: collective defense is once again the central task, there’s no doubt about that,” says Matthias Dembinski of the Leibniz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research. The crucial difference, however, is the strong distrust of the alliance’s leading nation, the US. If the new US president is Donald Trump, it could be the end of the principle of mutual support, which has been in place until now.
According to Dembinski, “in the worst-case scenario” it would be up to the Europeans to do two things: “compensate both for the US leadership role and take over the military contributions it has made to NATO so far. It’s a Herculean task”.
The current US president, Joe Biden, refers to Article 5 of NATO’s charter as something “sacred and inviolable”, according to which an attack on one member is an attack on all. At the organization’s most recent summit, in 2023, in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, he optimistically described the current situation: “Today our alliance is a bastion of global stability and security, as it has been for more than seven decades. NATO is stronger, more energetic and more united than ever.”
The biggest threat to the alliance
Conflict researcher Dembinski agrees that the current confrontation with Russia and the joint support for Ukraine solidify the alliance, although he recognizes the friction and inertia caused by having 32 members, with partly conflicting interests: this intermittently puts it “in front of an existential challenge”.
“But the interesting thing about NATO is that so far it has managed to overcome all the crises, and they have been tough. So far, its ability to adapt has been surprising.”
For German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, NATO’s challenge today is to readapt from international missions to the neglected protection of its own territory. It needs to get back to its roots, and fast, he says.
“In a way, we’re turning the wheel in the middle of a race: we’re already stopping the course of mobilizations for international crises, missions abroad. We need to resume the drive towards national and alliance defense. This requires a moment: we are right in the process, and I realize that things are dynamic.”
The future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will depend on the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine, even though Ukraine is not even a member country, emphasizes former NATO chief spokesman and communications director Jamie Shea: it’s a question of credibility for the alliance.
“Even if Ukraine manages to win and liberate its territory, Russia will remain evil and vengeful: it won’t love NATO. Unfortunately, Russia will remain the biggest threat to NATO for many years to come.”
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