Experts highlight the relationship between increasing maritime mentality and Naval Power and the protection of our wealth
By Second Lieutenant (RM2-T) João Stilben – Agência Marinha de Notícias
The shipping lanes in the Red Sea, which are among the most important in the world for international trade, have become dangerous for merchant ship traffic due to the various attacks carried out by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, following the outbreak of the current conflict in the Gaza Strip. It seems that the group has no intention of ceasing its attacks on US, British and other ships in support of the Hamas Palestinians.
This has been a growing concern not only for the countries involved in the conflicts, but also for all those who, like Brazil, depend on maritime routes to transport their production and import inputs necessary for their economy.
Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development show that around 80% of global trade takes place by sea. In the case of Brazil, this percentage is even higher, at around 95%, according to the Brazilian Association of Logistics, Transportation and Cargo.
As such, conflicts and piracy in the Red Sea region, through which around 15% of the world’s merchant traffic circulates, although geographically distant from Brazil, have an impact on import and export delivery times, by creating obstacles to free commercial navigation. They also make maritime transportation costs more expensive, with an increase in ship insurance due to safety concerns; the adoption of additional protection measures; and the need to divert ships along longer routes.
On February 12, the bulk carrier “Star Isis”, carrying a cargo of Brazilian corn between Vila do Conde (PA) and the Iranian port of Band Imam Khomeini, was attacked by missiles fired by the Houthis while sailing near Yemen. Iran is a significant importer of this Brazilian grain (around 4.5 million tons/year).
Major global shipping companies, such as Denmark’s Maersk, have suspended maritime transport in the region, through which a considerable part of the oil, natural gas and consumer goods that reach Europe via the Suez Canal pass. Several carriers have sought an alternative route, bypassing southern Africa, which adds around 10 days to the journey.
According to experts, the crisis in the Middle East has already begun to be felt here in Brazil since February. The first change was a rise in freight prices, which is likely to have an impact on the final price of consumer goods. As freight from Asia to Europe has already increased, this will have an impact on costs in Brazil, as almost 30% of what the country imports from Asia passes through Europe. In other words, the conflicts in the Red Sea will be felt in Brazilians’ pockets.
This is what the Coordinator of the Economy of the Sea Group and professor of the Postgraduate Program in Maritime Studies at the Naval War College, Dr. Thauan Santos, argues. According to him, considering that a significant portion of what we consume in Brazil comes from Asia, the conflict could more directly affect the price of the main imported products.
“One strategy to avoid such immediate and intense impacts is to diversify the origin of imports and increase self-sufficiency in certain sectors. The first of these is directly related to trade policy; the second to industrial policy. As they are unlikely to be changed in the short term, a primary concern is to maintain access to imported products. In this context, guaranteeing and/or signing new contracts, adding new clauses that are sensitive to the international situation and using combined instruments to mitigate the impact on inflation should be tools used together,” explains the professor.
For Thauan, another strategy to mitigate the impacts of attacks on maritime traffic is to rely on deterrence through the use of Naval Power. In this context, the presence and actions of ships from navies such as the US and the UK are essential. “In this way, we can offer quick and efficient responses to the most diverse forms of threat,” he stresses.
Disconnecting
The threat to cargo transportation is not the only maritime vulnerability exploited by groups or countries that employ irregular warfare tactics, such as sabotage. Global communications are another concern, given that almost the entire flow of information via the internet takes place through submarine cables. According to the TeleGeography portal, there are around 570 fiber optic cables in the oceans that connect every continent except Antarctica.
On February 28, an underwater cable in the Red Sea region, which connects Europe to India, was damaged and now has no prospect of repair, as the underwater repairs will have to be carried out in the region targeted by the Houthis. On February 26, four data cables were damaged by the Houthis, affecting telecommunications between Europe, Africa and Asia.
Brazil vs. Piracy
In the same area where the Houthis are attacking maritime transportation, Brazil has been a protagonist in the fight against another threat to ships traveling in the region: piracy. Since the end of January, the country has led Combined Task Force 151 (CTF-151), which acts against illegal activities in the Gulf of Aden, the Somali Basin and the Arabian Sea. This is the third time that the country has taken command of the Task Force, which is subordinate to the Combined Maritime Forces Command (CMF), the largest naval coalition on the planet.
Because of the actions of the Houthis, the situation is considered to be much more tense and dangerous than on other occasions when Brazil has been at the head of the coalition, according to Rear Admiral Antonio Braz de Souza, the current Commander of CTF-151. “The conflict in the Middle East has created a volatile security environment that extends beyond territorial borders. This instability has had a cascading effect on maritime security in the Indian Ocean,” said the Brazilian Admiral.
In CTF-151, Brazil commands two ships, as well as 23 military staff from ten other nations, at the US base, located in Bahrain, reporting to the head of the CMF, an Admiral of the United States Navy (USA). The Task Force is one of the five arms of the CMF, made up of 41 countries and organized to promote the fight against piracy, as well as security and stability in approximately 3.2 million square miles of international waters, which cover some of the most important maritime routes in the world, including the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
“For the first six months of 2024, the period in which the Brazilian Navy (MB) commands CTF-151, an increase in the number of piracy attempts within the area of operation is expected, and this trend has already started since November 2023, when there was the first attempt after a four-year suppression,” says Admiral Braz de Souza.
The Admiral also says that, as the first South American country to take part in the mission, the country is demonstrating its leading role in the international maritime community by systematically sending a senior national representative via the MB and by making qualified military personnel available to take part in the task forces.
“The MB is constantly seeking to increase its Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA) in order to fulfill its mission. In this sense, the possibility of an operational exchange in such a complex and dynamic environment certainly contributes to expanding CSM, preparing and specializing personnel, as well as improving military technique aimed at naval defense and cooperation in the repression of illicit activities at sea,” says the coordinator of Joint Task Force 151.
Recently, the Brazilian Navy established new doctrinal principles, organizing its actions in fields such as Maritime Security, which provides for actions to implement and enforce compliance with laws and regulations through the coercive use of Naval Power or limited use of force, including combating cross-border and environmental crimes and other illicit activities, such as piracy and terrorism.
Modern conflicts
For Rear Admiral Guilherme Mattos de Abreu, a member of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Military History and a collaborator with the Navy’s Center for Political and Strategic Studies, the actions of the Houthis in the Red Sea are threats with a “new configuration, given that the agents involved use sophisticated means such as sensors, helicopters, missiles and drones”.
“They therefore contrast significantly with the modus operandi of the squalid Somali pirates. This new configuration of the threat brings additional difficulties to dealing with it, which is very costly and complex, demanding a strenuous level of readiness for the units involved, given the short reaction time required,” he says.
Regarding this level of readiness, now in relation to the set of threats to maritime security, the Admiral points out that the MB already carries out actions across a broad spectrum, including monitoring maritime traffic, surveillance, presence and ongoing training. “It’s worth noting that, considering the geographical breadth of our area of interest, it’s not just the Brazilian Naval Power that’s involved, i.e. there necessarily has to be an agenda of cooperation between several countries,” he concludes.
Agência Marinha de Notícias *** Translated by DEFCONPress FYI Team ***