After achieving a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Chinese President Xi Jinping will seek to repeat the feat in the Ukrainian conflict during his visit to Russia this week.
(AFP) Xi, who is seeking to strengthen his country’s position on the world stage after being recently sworn in for a third term, has even been praised by the United States for his role as mediator in the surprising resumption of relations between the two major Middle Eastern rivals on March 10.
China’s intention is to “play a constructive role in promoting peace talks,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said on Friday (17).
The American The Wall Street Journal said Xi intended to hold talks soon with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodimir Zelensky, a move the White House also called “very good.”
Meanwhile, Western governments hope he will use his visit to Moscow to ask his “old friend” Vladimir Putin to end the conflict that has now lasted more than a year.
“Everyone wants an end to the war, given that Europe has a lot to lose and perhaps the United States may not be able to continue supporting Ukraine for a long time,” said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at the People’s University of China in Beijing.
An important ally of Moscow, China presents itself as a neutral party in the Ukraine conflict. So far, however, it has refused to condemn the Russian invasion and has criticized U.S. aid to Kiev.
- No concrete solutions
For Elizabeth Wishnick, an expert on Chinese politics at Montclair University in the United States, “China has done little to promote peace in Ukraine, since any effort on its part would amount to pressuring Russia, or at least pointing the finger directly at it.”
Xi Jinping’s visit, which will take place after the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin on Friday for war crimes, is intended to “show support for its strategic ally, without going so far as to help him, which would trigger sanctions,” the expert estimates.
Beijing criticized the ICC’s “double standards” on Monday and called on the court to respect the immunity of heads of state.
In February, China issued a 12-point document in which it called for dialogue and respect for each country’s territorial sovereignty in the Ukrainian conflict. It also presented the Global Security Initiative (GSI), designed to “promote peace and sustainable development.”
In both cases, Westerners criticized the lack of concrete solutions.
For Ja Ian Chong, associate professor at the National University of Singapore, China’s recent positions appear to be “an attempt to highlight” its GSI and “build momentum for its foreign policy and new global engagement.”
But in the end, he says, it will be the “content of its proposals during meetings with Ukrainian and Russian leaders” that will tell whether China is “effectively stepping up its efforts” for peace.
- “Armistice”
China’s ability to mediate was evident in the case of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Reaching an agreement on Ukraine will, however, be “much more difficult,” Wang Yiwei assesses, citing China’s “limited” influence over Russia and U.S. support for Kiev.
But Beijing could, he said, contribute to a “Korean War-style armistice.” It would end the fighting, but not the issues of territorial sovereignty.
According to Elizabeth Wishnick, Ukraine is “unlikely” to “accept China’s mediation, because it doesn’t consider it neutral, or impartial.”
“Xi may be looking forward to another diplomatic success, but I don’t see that on the horizon,” she said, adding that “neither side is ready to give up their hopes of conquering territories on the battlefield.”
Key dates in Russia-China relations
Although relations between Beijing and Moscow were tumultuous during the Cold War, the two countries have moved closer in recent decades to make a common front to the United States and develop their economic cooperation.
Check out the key dates in Sino-Russian relations since 1950 below:
- Allies during the Korean War –
After World War II, China and the Soviet Union signed a treaty of “friendship, alliance, and mutual assistance” in February 1950.
During the Korean War (1950-1953), Chinese forces fought on the side of the North, supported by the Soviet Union, against international coalition troops, mainly American, allies of the South.
- Uprising in 1960 –
Mao Zedong’s China breaks with Nikita Khrushchev’s USSR, however, because of Stalin’s successor’s 1956 “secret report” condemning Stalin’s personality cult and crimes.
The ideological and strategic break came to fruition in April 1960, after Khrushchev annulled a bilateral nuclear agreement.
In July 1963, border incidents, disagreements over the Cuban crisis, and the Sino-Indian conflict led the Chinese and Soviet Communist Parties to break off their contacts.
In August 1963, Beijing denounced the Moscow Treaty between the United States, Britain, and the USSR on a partial ban on nuclear testing.
- Border disputes in 1969 –
In November 1965, China unleashes the “anti-revisionist” Cultural Revolution, which criticizes “Soviet hegemonism.”
In 1969, a dispute over the route of the eastern part of its border, along the Amur River, over the jurisdiction of Damanski Island, ends in armed clashes that leave several hundred dead.
Ten years later, China annuls the 1950 treaty of alliance with the USSR.
Negotiations to normalize relations are frozen in January 1980, after the USSR invades Afghanistan.
- Normalization in 1989 –
Three decades later, a summit between Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev in Beijing in May 1989 seals the normalization of bilateral relations.
Beijing and Moscow pledge in December 1992 not to join a political-military alliance directed against the other side.
In September 1994, the two countries ended their nuclear confrontation and agreed to withdraw their respective missiles.
- Partners vis-à-vis the U.S. in 1996 –
In April 1996 in Beijing, President Jiang Zemin and his Russian counterpart, Boris Yeltsin, establish a “strategic partnership for the 21st century” to counterbalance the international dominance of the United States.
In 2001, in Shanghai, China, Russia, and three former Central Asian Soviet states (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan) sign a security agreement that gives birth to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
- Friendship Treaty in 2001 –
The first Sino-Russian friendship treaty in 50 years is signed in the Kremlin in July 2001.
In June 2005, a final agreement is signed on the route of the eastern part of the Sino-Russian border after 40 years of negotiations.
The new Chinese president, Xi Jinping, books his first official foreign visit to Moscow in 2013, when he signs some 30 oil and gas agreements.
- Common front on Syria –
During the war in Syria that began in 2011, Russia and China have repeatedly blocked UN Security Council draft resolutions to condemn Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Beijing shows leniency toward Moscow when Russian forces take control of Crimea in 2014.
- Greater energy cooperation –
On May 21, 2014, China and Russia conclude a gas supply megacontract worth $400 billion over 30 years after a decade of negotiations.
In December 2019 a joint pipeline is inaugurated that will transport gas from East Siberia to China.
On June 28, 2021, the two countries extend their 2001 friendship treaty for five years.
- Friendship “without limits” –
In early February 2022, in Beijing, the Russian and Chinese leaders proclaim their “boundless” friendship.
Days later, Vladimir Putin attacks Ukraine. In September 2022, amid crisis with Western governments, Xi Jinping and Putin state that they wish to strengthen their ties.
Beijing does not explicitly condemn or support the Russian offensive, while giving Moscow diplomatic support and calling for a resolution of the conflict.