Following the advance of Ukrainian troops into Russia’s Kursk region, Moscow has said it will send reinforcements. The Ukrainians are seeking military results, but also political objectives. Around 120,000 people have reportedly already left the region.
(DW) On Monday (12/08), the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced that the Ukrainian army now controls 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. It was the first official statement from Kiev on the subject since the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, close to the Ukrainian border, began.
On Friday, the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 35 kilometers into Russian territory. Experts warn, however, that the Ukrainian army is not in full control of the area.
There are reports of intense fighting, deaths and injuries. However, there is no independent information from the region itself, as reports usually come via social networks, Russian military bloggers and local authorities.
Also on Monday (12/08), the governor of the Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, reportedly told Russian President Vladimir Putin that more than 120,000 people had left the area or had been evacuated from near the front line. Another 59,000, according to Smirnov, still need to leave.
The governor also said that Ukraine controls 28 settlements in the region and that its troops have advanced some 12 kilometers into Russian territory, in an incursion that began on August 6. Smirnov also said that at least 12 people had been killed and 121 injured, including ten children, since the beginning of the action.
Ukrainian objectives
Experts cite political and military motives for the sudden offensive. For Ukraine, the aim would be to conquer as much Russian territory as possible and thus put pressure on Moscow and leave Kiev in a stronger position in future peace negotiations.
Ukrainian lands occupied by Russia could be exchanged for Russian territories conquered by Ukraine. In terms of military strategy, the advance inside Russia could create a safety zone for the population of areas contested by Ukraine, as well as weakening the Russian army.
The attack could force Russia to send more troops to the region. On Monday, Putin said he would expel Ukrainian troops from Kursk. But despite this hypothetical mobilization, it is believed that Moscow would not have the soldiers to compensate on the front line.
Does the incursion harm Ukraine?
On the one hand, Ukraine has taken a risk with the incursion and could end up losing more troops than Russia.
On the other hand, the country has greater military power due to the support it has received from the West, points out Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov.
Overall, the advance is above all a political success for Ukraine, which is already exerting pressure on Russia.
Operation planned in advance?
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski said on Monday that the incursion of Ukrainian forces into the Kursk region is the “disaster of this war” for Russia.
“We can see what is happening to Russia under [President Vladimir] Putin: 24 years ago, there was the Kursk disaster, the symbolic beginning of his rule,” he said in his daily address to the public, referring to the sinking of the Russian submarine of the same name, which killed all 118 crew members.
“And now it’s clear what the end is for it. Kursk too. The disaster of this war,” declared Zelenski, who until then had not explicitly referred to the offensive operation that began on Tuesday of last week.
“Russia brought the war to others, now it’s coming home. Ukraine has always wanted only peace and we will certainly guarantee it,” he concluded.
Experts assume that the action has been planned for months and that military support from the West has prompted the operation.
How sustainable is the action?
The Ukrainian army will probably not be able to hold the entire area it is advancing through. But at the moment, according to preliminary assessments, Ukraine has been relatively successful because the region was not prepared to be defended by the Russian army.
The sustainability of the advance, however, will probably depend on the West’s continued military support for Ukraine.
Kursk and the gas boom
Kursk is an important region for gas supplies. The last station through which the fuel flows from Russia to Europe via Ukraine is located near the small town of Sudzha. Apparently, at least so far, transportation continues unchanged. In any case, since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russian gas exports to Europe have fallen dramatically.