The recent advance of a coalition of insurgent militias has completely altered Syria’s civil war, with the deposition of Assad. Who are the rebel groups and powers that are shaping the scenario after the end of the regime?
(DW) Syria’s civil war reached a turning point with the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad, ending a decades-long regime marked by corruption, repression and foreign intervention.
A coalition of rebel forces launched a lightning offensive that drastically altered the course of the conflict, which had appeared to be frozen for years.
However, the Syrian opposition is a patchwork of groups with conflicting ideologies and objectives. Many are supported by foreign powers, which often brings them into conflict with each other.
Control over areas in Syria
These are the main actors that could shape the post-Assad scenario in Syria:
Organization for the Liberation of the Levant
The recent offensive that led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime was led by the Levant Liberation Organization militia (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS), an Islamist militant group led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmad al-Sharaa.
HTS is deeply rooted in the Syrian civil war. Initially created under the name Al Nusra Front in 2011, the group was the local branch of Al Qaeda, founded with the involvement of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the jihadist leader who would later break away from Al Qaeda to lead the Islamic State.
Known for its jihadist ideology, the Al Nusra Front often clashed with other opposition groups, including the then main rebel coalition, the Free Syrian Army.
In 2016, Jolani severed ties with Al Qaeda and renamed the group the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, subsequently merging it with several smaller Islamist factions.
Although the ideology of HTS remains broadly aligned with Al Qaeda, the main difference is in focus: HTS concentrates on the fight against the Assad regime and the establishment of a fundamentalist Islamic government in Syria, distancing itself from broader global ambitions such as the “world caliphate”.
Since then, HTS has consolidated its power base in Idlib province, in the northwest of the country, where it acts as the de facto government and tries to convey an image of moderation. However, accusations from residents and human rights groups of brutal disregard for human rights undermine these efforts for legitimacy.
HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the UN, the US and Turkey. However, the group’s recent offensive to overthrow Assad aligns with Turkish interests and would probably not have taken place without Turkey’s coordination and support, although Turkish authorities deny direct involvement.
Analysts say that the Turkish government was informed about the offensive by the jihadist insurgents. Without Ankara’s consent or even support, they wouldn’t have stood a chance, says Middle East expert Michael Lüders.
“Ankara certainly not only knew about this advance, but also supported it militarily. Because the insurgents obviously need appropriate weapons. Because of their geographical location, they can only get them from Turkey,” said Lüders in an interview with German broadcaster Deutschlandfunk.
Syrian National Army (SNA)
In addition to the HTS, many other militias are fighting in Syria’s civil war and pursuing their own agendas.
A major armed opposition group that has taken part in the offensive against Damascus is the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was created in 2017 and brings together dozens of factions with varying ideologies.
In contrast to the more centralized and cohesive Levant Liberation Organization, the SNA is a fragmented coalition of different armed groups. Some of them previously operated under the banner of the Free Syrian Army. Often, some of these groups have clashed with each other.
Despite their internal divisions, many SNA factions share common ties with Turkey. Some, such as the Sultan Suleiman Shah Brigade, the al-Hamza Division and the Sultan Murad Division, are closely aligned with Ankara, reflecting Turkish support through names that pay homage to Ottoman figures.
However, not all SNA factions are fully aligned with Turkish interests. Some groups, while cooperating with Ankara, seek to balance their own priorities. For example, the coalition includes influential rebel factions such as Ahrar al-Sham, whose stated aims are to “overthrow the Assad regime” and “establish an Islamic state governed by sharia law”.
In recent days, SNA forces have clashed with Kurdish forces in the northern provinces and taken several strategic towns and villages. These operations are in line with what is Turkey’s main objective in Syria: to overthrow the Kurdish self-government in north-northeastern Syria and prevent the presence of Kurdish organizations and military along the Turkish-Syrian border.
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a coalition of mainly Kurdish fighters, but also Arabs and other ethnic groups, which was formed during the Syrian civil war.
Formed in 2015, the SDF operates under the leadership of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish armed organization, and has received significant support from the US, especially in the campaign against the Islamic State terrorist group.
After Islamic State was largely defeated, the Kurdish-led forces consolidated control over the cities of northeastern Syria, where they are the armed arm of an autonomous Kurdish government.
However, the Kurdish fighters still face their long-time enemy, Turkey, which sees them as an extension of a Kurdish separatist insurgency and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which the government in Ankara classifies as terrorist.
Turkey
Turkey has exerted its influence in Syria mainly through the support of armed groups, in the Turkish case mainly the SNA. But since the beginning of the civil war, the Turkish military has also made several military interventions across the border with Syria, mainly against the forces led by the Syrian Kurds.
The most recent operation dates back to October 2019, with Ankara aiming to push Kurdish fighters at least 30 kilometers away from its border and establish a so-called “safe zone” in parts of Syria, where it plans to send refugees.
Since then, Turkey has in practice controlled an area along Syria’s northern border, which has allowed it to coordinate with rebel groups.
Russia
Alongside Iran, Russia has been Assad’s main partner, providing military and logistical support since its intervention in 2015. Russian airstrikes were key to Assad’s turnaround and helped the now deposed dictator stay in power for years.
However, Russia’s ability to intervene has diminished as resources have been diverted to the war in Ukraine.
The fall of Assad probably means the end of Russian military bases in Syria. “I can’t see how the new regime or the new socio-political order will allow the Russians to stay on after all they’ve done to prop up the Assad regime,” said security expert Andreas Krieg, from King’s College London.
The Ukrainian military secret service reported that Russia has already begun withdrawing its warships from the Tartus sea base, Russia’s largest in the Middle East and located on the Mediterranean Sea, as well as remaining military equipment at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia province.
“The whole world was surprised by what happened. We are no exception,” said the Kremlin spokesman.
Iran
Iran had Syria as an essential element of the Axis of Resistance, a coalition of militias and governments in the Middle East that are united in the fight against the influence of the US and Israel.
Iran supported Assad by sending Iranian forces and Hezbollah militants, and in return the Syrian regime allowed arms to pass from Iran and Iraq to Lebanon.
The first blow to the Axis of Resistance was the crushing Israeli military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, one of the groups supported by Iran. Then Israel attacked Iran’s most powerful ally, the Hezbollah militia, in Lebanon, eliminating virtually its entire leadership. And now its long-time ally in Syria has also gone off the map.
The senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that Iran had opened a direct line of communication with the rebels of the new Syrian leadership in an attempt to “avoid a hostile trajectory” between the two countries.
“Iran’s main concern is whether Assad’s successor will move Syria out of Tehran’s orbit,” said another Iranian official. “This is a scenario that Iran wants to avoid.”
United States
The US initially supported opposition groups during the early stages of the civil war, which began in 2011, later shifting its focus to fighting the Islamic State, with support for Kurdish fighters.
Currently, around 900 US troops remain in Syria, mainly in the oil-rich, Kurdish-controlled areas in the north-east of the country, as well as at a military outpost in the border area between Syria, Iraq and Jordan.