In 2022, more than two billion euros were spent on the defense sector in the world, the latest report from the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies reveals this Monday, April 24. The largest increase in military spending was in Central and Western Europe (+13%) to a total of 313 billion euros. This is the biggest increase since the end of the Cold War and is due, in Portuguese historian José Pacheco Pereira’s opinion, to the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
(RFI) How do you read the conclusions of the latest report by the Stockholm International Institute of Peace Studies?
For several years now the world has been in a situation of worsening international relations and, obviously, the invasion of Ukraine has led to a kind of paroxysm, creating a situation that is not yet a world war but that includes the risk of a more generalized war. If we look at the statements of the Russians, we can even think about a possible nuclear war. I think that [the statements] are not to be taken seriously, the Russians have rationality, even in spite of what they have done. Everybody knows that a nuclear war has no winners.
Now, from the point of view of conventional weaponry, investment in research or improving new weapons, that’s what’s going on and will continue. So I’m not at all surprised by those kinds of conclusions. We are, since World War II, in a more dangerous time.
Doesn’t the fact that we have the United States, China and Russia leading the list of countries that invest the most in military weapons show an imbalance?
This imbalance has existed since World War II. U.S. weaponry is, in general, more expensive, more sophisticated and involves – whether from the point of view of aviation, drones, navy, ground troops, special forces – a higher investment. There is indeed an increase in these expenses, but, strictly speaking, it is only an increase in a trend that already exists. But it is interesting to highlight the fact that Russia has been overtaken by China. China is, from a confrontational point of view, the most dangerous country for the United States.
In Ukraine, military spending was 40 billion Euros, which is a 640% increase. Did the Russian invasion of Ukraine have an immediate impact on military spending decisions in Central and Western Europe?
Without a shadow of a doubt. It’s only the beginning and it’s going to be much more serious. Europe has always lived under the umbrella of the United States. The bulk of the military expenditure to defend Europe, in terms of NATO and bilateral relations, was made by the United States. This situation had already caused a conflict, manifested in the Obama era and worsening with Trump, about the need for Europeans to have a greater role in military spending. But right now, everyone is going to spend immensely from a military standpoint. They are going to arm themselves “to the teeth.”
Those who are more economically able and have established arms industries, such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom. These countries are going to have an exponential increase in defense spending, an inevitable consequence of the fact that we are in a unique military situation since 1945, which was triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Do you think that the European Union has recently broken the taboo of common European defense? An idea ideally defended by France…
Sure, France has military industries and needed to have a market for its weaponry. In fact, the bulk of France’s effort came to modernize the European arsenal. I admit that there will not be, in the short term, a strengthening of the European part of the defense mechanisms. What there will be is a strengthening of NATO. The fact that Sweden and Finland – Finland has already joined – have joined NATO, countries that were neutral, is a change that represents a sense of risk that has not existed since 1945.
Can we say that we live in a more insecure world?
Absolutely. More insecure, more dangerous, and more socially and economically unstable.
This study reveals that the African continent spent about 38 billion Euros in the defense sector, 5.3% less than in 2021. Something unheard of in the last four years. Is this good news or is it something that can be explained by the fact that many African countries’ budgets are dependent on international aid and since there is a conflict in Europe at the moment, Africa is no longer a priority?
It’s both factors, especially the latter. But this is also going to change. See you have started to discuss the role of the Russian Wagner group in Africa and the incidents that are occurring in Sudan are going to bring changes. The arms race is going to be on practically every continent – with an exception for South America – translating into a much riskier strategic situation worldwide.
This arms race is considered to be the biggest rise in the last 30 years, since the end of the Cold War. Does this study leave in the air the specter that world peace is not likely to improve in the near future?
Have no doubt at all that it will not get better. Take the case of the conflict in Ukraine: from the moment Russia annexed parts of Ukraine and had it approved by its parliament, Duma- something very fictitious- the annexation of a part of Ukraine, it is no longer just Crimea, the conflict no longer has an easy resolution, let alone a peaceful one.
Ukraine cannot accept the occupation of its territory and Russia, if it backs down on these annexations, admits that it has lost the war. It is going to be very complicated to resolve this conflict.