Since last week, Ukraine has made an unprecedented advance into Russian territory, two and a half years after the war began. The offensive, which has left more than 10 dead and caused tens of thousands of civilians to flee Kursk, near the border between the two countries, is the biggest attack on Russia since the Second World War.
(RFI) For Thibault Fouillet, PhD in history and scientific director of the Institute of Strategy and Defense Studies at Jean Moulin Lyon 3 University, Ukraine’s incursion into enemy territory was “a real surprise”, since Kursk had not been considered “a danger zone” until now. “Moscow’s operational gaze was turned towards the Donbass [eastern Ukraine],” he notes.
The expert recalls that other Ukrainian attacks had already been carried out in this Russian region during the two and a half years of war, but the novelty in the Ukrainian strategy is that the current incursion is “massive”. “It was surprising, with more intensity than expected,” he said, pointing out that this characteristic challenges Russia’s ability to stop the attack from progressing.
On condition of anonymity, a source in Ukraine’s security sector claims that “thousands” of soldiers are taking part in the operation, with the aim of “scattering the enemy’s positions, inflicting maximum losses, destabilizing the situation in Russia and transferring the war to Russian territory”.
Control of 1,000 km2
Currently, 28 locations in the Kursk region are under Ukrainian control. The operation extends over an area 40 kilometers wide, with a 12-kilometer advance into Russian territory. Kiev claims to control 1,000 km2 in this border area.
Russian President Vladimir Putin promised on Monday (12) to “expel” Ukrainian forces from Kursk. For the Kremlin chief, this is an unexpected setback, given that the country’s forces have had the upper hand for months on Ukraine’s eastern front, gaining ground little by little, but without any major advances.
“This delay in the response shows us that there is obviously a lack of resources. There are obviously holes in the Russian defense,” says Fouillet. According to the expert, it will take a few more days for Moscow to mobilize more reinforcements in order to block and circumscribe the Ukrainian forces.
Panic among the Russian population
According to the Russian authorities, since August 6, 12 civilians have been killed and more than 100 injured in the Ukrainian incursion, including children. Around 120,000 people have left or been evacuated from Kursk in less than a week, as the insecurity in the region causes panic among the population.
“We’re facing the unknown, we’ve never seen this,” says Fouillet. “We’ve seen attacks on refineries, drone attacks in Moscow, but it was really symbolic. Today there really is a Russian region in a state of war, with a situation in which Ukrainians can advance,” he points out.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has lost around 20% of his territory to Russia in two and a half years of conflict, doesn’t hide his objectives. According to him, the aim of the offensive is to “shift the war to the aggressor’s terrain”.
According to the Jean Moulin Lyon 3 University expert, the question now is whether this new Ukrainian offensive will be “permanent”. “Will a new front be opened?” he asks, stressing the difficulties this situation could pose for both sides.