The Essequibo Crisis: Brazil Between the BRICS and the Western BlocThe Essequibo Crisis: Brazil Between the BRICS and the Western Bloc

The territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo has evolved into a critical scenario in which the Nicolás Maduro regime is mobilizing efforts for a military invasion and annexation of the region, in defiance of the international order.

Rui Martins da Mota (Martins Mota) – Brazilian Army Special Forces Veteran

The plebiscite promoted by the Chavista regime, which is not recognized by the international community, has served as a pretext for claiming this territory rich in natural resources.

Maduro’s maneuver is supported by his alliance with and dependence on Russia and China, which provide political, economic and military support for Caracas. Venezuela is betting on the fragility of international institutions and the dispersal of Western efforts with other conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and tension in the Middle East, to impose a fait accompli and incorporate Essequibo into its sovereignty.

Maduro’s government is facing a crisis of internal and external legitimacy. Internally, Venezuela is suffering from hyperinflation, economic collapse, political repression and an unprecedented population exodus and questions about the transparency of the elections with accusations of electoral fraud.

The opposition accuses Maduro of using the Essequibo crisis as a mechanism to divert attention from the internal crisis and strengthen his control over the country. Externally, his regime is widely contested, with several Western nations not recognizing its legitimacy.

Brazil, for its part, faces a geopolitical dilemma. Traditionally, the country has adopted a stance of neutrality and mediation, reinforced by its pacifist diplomacy. However, under the current administration, Brazil has distanced itself from the US and the Western Bloc, its traditional allies, and has been consolidating a closer alignment with BRICS and with regimes ideologically aligned with the Maduro government.

Although the BRICS is promoted as a multipolar bloc with an economic bias, in practice, the Sino-Russian leadership defines its strategic agenda, challenging the Western Order and limiting the autonomy of the other members. This turn in Brazilian foreign policy comes at a time when the West, with which Brazil shares the three pillars of Western civilization – Greek Philosophy, Roman Law and Judeo-Christian Religion – is increasingly concerned about the growing influence and rise of autocratic regimes on the international stage.

The Strategic Value of Essequibo

The dispute over Essequibo is not limited to a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. The region has enormous geopolitical, energy and economic value and is considered one of the most promising for oil exploration in the world. Essequibo is home to around 9 billion barrels of oil, making it one of the main assets of ExxonMobil and other Western investors.

In addition, its wealth of gold, bauxite and uranium increases its strategic importance, especially in the context of the dispute over essential resources for the defense and high-tech industries.

Essequibo’s geographical position is also a critical factor. Located between the Caribbean and the Amazon, the region offers access to strategic maritime routes and can serve as a projection point for influence over South America and the South Atlantic.

Venezuela’s control of the region would strengthen its geopolitical presence, creating a corridor of influence stretching from its Atlantic coast to the Amazon, directly affecting the security of Brazil and the Western Bloc.

Guyana, aware of its military vulnerability, has strengthened ties with Western powers to guarantee its security. Since the discovery of oil, the country has positioned itself more assertively in the diplomatic arena, seeking support not only from the US and the UK, but also from the European Union and regional organizations. The Guyanese government has promoted military and strategic agreements to strengthen its deterrent capacity, preventing Venezuela from advancing militarily on its territory.

Geopolitical Foundations of the Crisis

Geopolitical theory helps to understand the dynamics of the crisis. Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory suggests that those who control strategic areas within a continent have a greater capacity to project power. In the South American context, Venezuela’s incorporation of Essequibo would strengthen its position as a relevant geopolitical actor, increasing its capacity to challenge Western interests.

Nicholas Spykman’s Rimland Theory emphasizes that whoever dominates the coastal and peripheral areas of a continent controls its trade routes and development potential. From this perspective, Essequibo represents a critical point in the control of the South Atlantic, which is fundamental for global energy logistics.

In John Mearsheimer’s field of Offensive Realism, Venezuela sees an opportunity for territorial expansion and consolidation of the Chavista regime, taking advantage of Western distraction with simultaneous crises.

As Clausewitz defined, war is a continuation of politics by other means, and Maduro may be launching this offensive to strengthen his internal government, diverting the focus from Venezuela’s hyperinflation, hunger and social collapse.

Brazilian geopolitical thinking, represented by Mário Travassos and Golbery do Couto e Silva, warned of the risk of destabilizing Brazil’s strategic environment. Venezuela’s occupation of Essequibo could strengthen the Russian and Chinese presence in South America, threatening the balance of power and requiring a more assertive response from Brazil in defense of regional stability.

Invasion routes

Venezuela has no direct land access to Essequibo, which makes a conventional invasion challenging. There are three possible invasion routes:

  • Land invasion via Brazil – In order to deploy land troops to Essequibo, Venezuela would have to cross Brazilian territory, which would create a direct diplomatic crisis with Brazil.
  • River invasion via the Essequibo River – This option would allow Venezuelan forces to penetrate Guyanese territory, using the rivers as a military transportation route.
  • Maritime invasion – Venezuela could launch an amphibious operation from its Atlantic coast, with naval support, with the aim of taking Georgetown, the capital of Guyana.

Cold War 2.0 and the Involvement of the Great Powers

The Essequibo crisis is part of Cold War 2.0, characterized by the dispute between the Western Bloc and the revisionist blocs led by Russia and China. Venezuela, as a Russian-Chinese protectorate in Latin America, is seeking support from these allies to realize its territorial ambitions.

Russia, which already has a strategic base in Nicaragua, can provide military assistance and modern armaments to Venezuela, consolidating a corridor of influence in South America. China, for its part, despite maintaining economic relations with Guyana, prioritizes its energy interests and its long-term partnership with Maduro, and could offer diplomatic and economic support to the Venezuelan operation.

The Western Bloc, led by the US and the UK, reacted quickly, strengthening its alliance with Guyana and expanding its military presence in the Caribbean. SOUTHCOM (US Southern Command) is already monitoring Venezuelan movements, and the possibility of additional sanctions against Caracas is a concrete reality.

The fragility of regional organizations such as UNASUR (Union of South American Nations) and CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) compromises the effectiveness of diplomatic solutions, making a coordinated response by South America itself difficult.

Global, regional and Brazilian impacts

The Essequibo crisis has repercussions that go beyond the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, affecting global geopolitical stability, regional security and Brazil’s strategic interests.

  • Global impacts

The escalation of the conflict comes at a time of reconfiguration of the international order, deepening the rivalry between the Western Bloc and the revisionist blocs led by Russia and China. The main global impacts include:

  • Deepening of Cold War 2.0: The crisis reinforces the fragmentation of the international system into two main blocs, with the US and its allies supporting Guyana and Russia and China strengthening Venezuela.
  • Pressure on oil prices: Instability in a region with strategic oil reserves could lead to a rise in global oil prices, especially in the face of sanctions and export restrictions.
  • Possible external military involvement: The growing presence of external powers in the Caribbean, including the US, UK, Russia and China, could turn Essequibo into a new point of indirect military dispute, increasing the risks of a major confrontation.

Should the crisis escalate into an armed conflict, the involvement of major powers could reconfigure global alliances and increase the militarization of the South Atlantic.

  • Regional impacts

South America, traditionally considered a region with a low intensity of interstate conflicts, could face a new reality if Venezuela tries to annex Essequibo. The main regional impacts include:

  • Destabilization of South America: Venezuela’s military advance could encourage other autocratic regimes in the region, such as Nicaragua, Cuba, Bolivia and others under leftist regimes and aligned with Chavista influence, to challenge established borders, creating political instability and weakening regional bodies.
  • Diplomatic polarization: Countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Colombia will be pressured to take a stand, potentially altering South America’s diplomatic balance.
  • Increased migratory flow: A possible conflict could generate a significant population exodus from Guyana to Brazil and other neighboring countries, overloading humanitarian assistance systems.
  • Military reaction from the Western Bloc: Military support from NATO, the US and the UK for Guyana could change the correlation of forces in South America and increase the presence of foreign troops in the region, weakening the continent’s traditional stance of autonomy.

As already mentioned, the weakness of regional institutions such as UNASUR and CELAC reduces South America’s ability to resolve the crisis regionally, making diplomatic mediation less viable.

  • Impacts for Brazil

Brazil will be directly impacted by the crisis, both in economic and diplomatic terms and in terms of its national security.

For Brazil, the crisis has direct consequences. The deployment of Venezuelan troops to the Guyana border could generate a massive migratory flow to Roraima, increasing the humanitarian challenges and putting pressure on the infrastructure in the north of the country, which is already overloaded by the influx of Venezuelans into Roraima, fleeing the Maduro regime, which is controlled by Operation ACOLHIDA, under the leadership of the Brazilian Army.

In addition, instability in the region could affect Brazil’s energy security, since oil operations in Guyana involve companies that supply the global market.

On a geopolitical level, Brazil faces the risk of losing strategic space in South America and being seen by the Western Bloc as a hesitant actor in the face of clear threats to regional stability.

  • Economy and Energy

Oscillations in the energy market: Brazil could be affected by volatile oil prices, given that Essequibo has become one of the oil industry’s biggest emerging hubs.

Risk of economic sanctions: Depending on Brazil’s position, the country could come under commercial and diplomatic pressure, especially if it is seen as complacent with Venezuela’s territorial ambitions.

Impact on trade relations with the US and Europe: If Brazil adopts a neutral or pro-Venezuela stance, there could be difficulties in accessing foreign markets and investments, damaging strategic sectors of the economy.

  • Diplomacy and Foreign Policy

Loss of diplomatic prominence: Brazil could lose international credibility if its response to the crisis is ambiguous or perceived as colluding with Maduro.

Dilemma between BRICS and the Western Bloc: The need to define a position could generate tensions within BRICS, if Brazil tries to balance its relationship with China and Russia while maintaining historical ties with the US and Europe.

Reduction of Brazilian influence in South America: If Brazil hesitates to act, it could open up space for other powers to take on a regional leadership role, reducing its strategic prominence on the continent.

Brazil’s alternatives

Brazil has three ways out of the crisis:

  • Neutrality and Mediation

Maintain a neutral diplomatic stance and act as a mediator in the dispute, promoting a solution via the International Court of Justice (ICJ). This option would preserve Brazil’s tradition of neutrality, but could be interpreted as omission and weakness, since Venezuela has already indicated that it does not recognize the ICJ’s jurisdiction over the case.

  • Western alternative (Support for Guyana)

Support Guyana and the Western Bloc by reinforcing the security of the northern border and strengthening ties with the US and the UK. This could involve military cooperation, diplomatic support in international forums and a greater presence in the Caribbean to prevent an escalation of Venezuelan aggression.

  • BRICS alternative (Support for Venezuela)

Maintain good relations with Maduro and avoid friction with Russia and China. This choice could preserve Brazilian interests within BRICS and guarantee economic benefits, but it would put Brazil in opposition to the Western Bloc, increasing the risk of economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.

Conclusion: Brazil Faces a Strategic Decision

Venezuela’s invasion of Essequibo is a real and imminent threat that challenges regional stability and international security. Brazil must decide whether to maintain its stance as a neutral mediator, align itself with the Western Bloc or strengthen its position with the BRICS.

Brazil’s response could be decisive in avoiding a military escalation with unpredictable consequences. In short, the Essequibo crisis transcends the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana, becoming one of the main challenges of South American geopolitics in recent decades.

The global, regional and national impacts place Brazil in a delicate position, in which neutrality can be seen as omission, and alignment can have diplomatic and economic consequences.

Brazil’s decision in the face of this conflict will be crucial in defining its role as a regional leader and its position on the global stage in a context of growing tensions between the major powers.

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