"Putin regime collapse would be nightmare for China""Putin regime collapse would be nightmare for China"

Relations between Beijing and Moscow are marked by a special bond between their leaders. In an interview, political scientist decodes the underestimated ties between the two autocrats and the interdependence that binds them.

(DW) Political scientist Dirk Schmidt is a professor of Chinese politics and economics at the University of Trier. In an interview with DW, he talks about the ties and biographical commonalities uniting the leaders of China and Russia in their much-vaunted “partnership without borders,” which was emphasized once again during a recent visit by the Chinese ruler to Moscow.

Schmidt says Beijing considers Russia necessary and crucial in a multipolar world order turned against the U.S. and that relations between the two countries is nurtured by both sides’ own interests. “China is clearly pursuing its own interests and is now using the situation in Russia to obtain gas, oil, coal and resources in general at cheap prices,” the political scientist explains.

The expert points out that Beijing has a “huge interest” that the war in Ukraine does not end to the disadvantage of the Russians. “From the Chinese point of view, it would be an absolute nightmare scenario if Putin’s government fell and, in a hypothetical situation, Russia joined the West,” he assesses.

DW: Professor Schmidt, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine more than a year ago, Beijing and Moscow had already agreed on a “partnership without borders.” Recently, such friendly ties were emphasized once again during the official visit to Moscow of the head of state and leader of China’s Communist Party, Xi Jinping. To what extent is this much-proclaimed friendship between two states a friendship between two individuals?

Dirk Schmidt: I believe that the importance of the personal friendship between Putin and Xi is underestimated. The relationship between the two countries is shaped by the personal convictions of their leaders. Both are linked by a particular closeness, I would even say friendship. This very term was even used during the official visit. When they sat facing each other, Xi Jinping, who is certainly oblivious to sentimentality, put it this way: “President Putin, my great friend.” That is exactly what he said in Chinese. This is a special quality and not just an empty phrase.

On his first trip abroad as head of state in 2013, Xi Jinping went to Moscow. Even then, Xi Jinping told Putin he believed they had a “similar character.” He even spoke of a kind of soul mate. Where does this come from?

There are some parallels in their biographies: both are from the same generation, with only a few months difference in age. Both grew up in a Marxist-Leninist system. In other words, Putin understands Xi’s mentality in the Communist Party structure.

On the other hand, Xi Jinping has an understanding of Russian history, something that Putin always promotes. Xi is the son of one of Mao [Tsé-tung]’s closest collaborators. His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a top official in the field of relations with Russia. In interviews, Xi has repeatedly reported that he was also influenced by Russian literature as a child, and that his father used to bring him gifts from Russia. In addition, Xi Jinping’s father, who is considered extremely pro-Russia, was persecuted as a Russian spy under Mao in the 1960s.

Both also share the experience of the decline of the autocratic system in the Soviet Union (USSR). Xi Jinping has always criticized the collapse of the USSR, from the beginning of his tenure to the present day. Putin and Xi have an identical view on the end of the USSR. From the point of view of both Putin and Xi, this fall is due to the incompetence of former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachov.

Another aspect in which both share a similar perspective is their concern about so-called “colored revolutions” brought into their respective systems from outside, whether from the US or the West as a whole.

Since 2013, Xi and Putin have met at least 40 times. How do you see the relationship developing over such frequent meetings?

It has deepened. There is also a lot of talk about gift exchanges on these official visits. We know that on several of them, Xi Jinping and Putin have met alone. On one such occasion in 2019, in the context of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting, Putin congratulated Xi Jinping on his birthday and presented him with cake and ice cream. And according to his closest circles, they also paid visits to each other in their respective hotel rooms and talked privately. This is extremely rare in such a context. These people are very suspicious. The fact that they have cultivated such closeness and intimacy over the past ten years is something special.

Let’s look again at these two countries, whose autocrats call themselves brothers. In Chinese there is a hierarchy in the term brother: there is the older brother, “gege,” and the younger one, “didi. When Xi and Putin were young, the USSR was clearly the “older brother”. What does this brotherly relationship between Xi and Putin look like nowadays?

We see a reversal of the previous relationship. In the meantime, Russia has clearly become a minority partner, an appendage. This affects Russian pride, but it is the truth: Russia is isolated and China is the only important country that is on its side, that also supports it. That is only as long as this support does not entail sanctions from the West, of course.

I read a comment by a Russian analyst who said that Russia will “end up becoming a colony of raw materials. This is a very harsh statement, but there is some truth in it. Today we read, for example, that the country is increasingly relying on the use of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, to conduct trade, and even to process payments within Russia itself. This clearly shows the discrepancy between the two sides.

Now let’s look at this close personal relationship between Xi and Putin, the promised “partnership without borders” between the two countries, according to which there can be no “forbidden areas of cooperation.” What does this mean in the case of aeventual Chinese support for Russia in the war of aggression against Ukraine?

First of all, it is surprising that the terminology “partnership without borders” has been relatively little used. I don’t think that this term has come up in the last two or three days. From the Chinese point of view, it is clear that they are not chained unconditionally to Russia, but they do want to maintain flexibility. A central tenet of Chinese foreign policy is the need for tactical flexibility.

The strategic direction is very clear: Russia is necessary and crucial in a multipolar world order turned against the US. At this point, they are close to each other. Other than that, China is clearly following its own interests and is now using the situation in Russia to get gas, oil, coal and resources in general at cheap prices.

In that sense, China has a huge interest not necessarily in Russia’s victory, but that somehow the war doesn’t end to the Russians’ disadvantage. China needs Russia. China shares a 4,200 kilometer border with Russia. From the Chinese perspective, it would be an absolute nightmare scenario if Putin’s government fell and, in a hypothetical situation, Russia joined the West. From the Chinese perspective, an adversary would thus emerge directly along those 4,200 kilometers of the northern border. This is a very obvious security policy problem.

The “Friendship Bridge” between China and North Korea

There has been a lot of speculation about arms deliveries….

I wouldn’t rule it out. Only China would be able to do it in an underhanded way. For example, by making deliveries to Russia through third countries, via Turkey, Azerbaijan or the Emirates. There have already been reports to this effect.

China is extremely adept at evading sanctions. One example of this is its longstanding support for North Korea. We should not underestimate China. In the end, if the situation really tightens, I believe China would certainly use all available means to ensure Russia’s survival under Putin.

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