It’s not just the lack of economic, military or political ballast that weighs against Brazil in a future peace negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, Lula’s clear antipathy towards Zelenski makes it impossible for him to play a mediating role.
Thomas Milz – DW
Could Brazil hold the key to peace in Ukraine? Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during the Economic Forum in Vladivostok that Brazil, along with China and India, could play a role as a mediator in a possible peace negotiation with Ukraine. “If there is a desire on the part of Ukraine to continue negotiations, I can do so,” said Putin.
Can Itamaraty under Lula really play an important role in this process? The track record is not very favorable: the nuclear agreement that Lula negotiated with Iran in 2010 was ignored by the major powers; and Brazil’s attempts in recent months to resolve the crisis in Venezuela have failed. Despite Lula’s grandiose ambitions, Brazil has proved to be a lightweight on the global diplomatic stage.
It is therefore surprising that Putin is positioning Brazil alongside India and China – two countries considered even by the pro-Ukraine West to be qualified to play an important role in future peace negotiations, considering their economic, military and political weight.
It is worth remembering that the three countries are traditional partners of Russia within the group originally named BRIC, founded to represent rising developing countries and challenge the political and economic power of the West – which explains why Putin called them, including Brazil, “partners” in Vladivostok.
A tradition of neutrality
Brazil has traditionally positioned itself neutrally on the global stage. As the country has commercial interests both with the West and in the developing world, neutrality is a diplomatic imperative.
Neutral countries can often stand out on the global stage as moderators. Switzerland, for example – which, like Brazil, does not have great military or economic power to project its influence – has traditionally set the stage for difficult negotiations between the heavyweights on the global stage.
Brazil tried to do the same in the Ukrainian War. To this end, the Itamaraty under Lula criticized both the Russian invasion and the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia. And in May of this year, Brazil and China published a joint declaration calling for a peace conference capable of putting Ukraine and Russia at the negotiating table. And after Russia was not invited to the peace summit in Switzerland in June, Lula ignored the conference.
But Lula has already burned his diplomatic cartridges in the Ukrainian War right from the start of the conflict, by blaming part of the Russian invasion on the Ukrainians themselves. He then appeared to avoid trying to meet Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski at any cost, such as at the G7 meeting in Japan in 2023. At the same time, he had no problem holding talks with Putin.
It seems that Lula and his advisor for international affairs, Celso Amorim, have the same problem with Zelenski as they do with the Venezuelan opposition: they don’t trust anyone who is close to the United States. On the other hand, those who are against the United States always have the benefit of the doubt, as in the case of Nicolás Maduro and Putin. It’s a very simplistic view of the world, which hinders any serious diplomatic effort on the global stage.
Antipathy that gets in the way
It was therefore not surprising that Zelenski told Latin American journalists in May that the Lula government was prioritizing an “alliance” with the aggressor Russia. Kiev insisted that Brazil show solidarity with the invaded country, or at least use its influence with Putin to put pressure on the Russian leader. None of this was done by the Brazilian government.
With no military, economic or political weight on an equal footing with China or India, Brazilian neutrality was the only trump card that Lula could bring to the negotiating table. But this is something that Lula simply no longer has to offer. The Brazilian leader’s worldview stands in the way of his ambition to be a successful diplomat.