Russia appears to have suffered a “catastrophic failure” in a test of its Sarmat missile, a key weapon in the modernization of its nuclear arsenal, according to weapons experts who analysed satellite images of the launch site.
The images captured by the Maxar satellite on September 21 show a crater about 60 meters wide at the launch site at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. They reveal extensive damage that was not visible in the photos taken earlier in the month.
The RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile was designed to launch nuclear warheads against targets thousands of kilometers away in the United States or Europe, but its development has been hampered by delays and setbacks in testing.
“Apparently, it was an unsuccessful test. There’s a big hole in the ground,” said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst who heads the Russian Nuclear Forces project. “There was a serious incident with the missile and the silo.”
Timothy Wright, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said that the destruction of the area immediately around the missile silo suggests a failure shortly after ignition.
“One of the possible causes is that the first stage (propellant) failed to ignite properly or suffered a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to fall back or land near the silo and explode,” he told Reuters.
James Acton, a nuclear expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, published on X that the before and after satellite images were “very persuasive that there was a large explosion” and said he is convinced that a Sarmat test had failed.
The Kremlin referred questions about Sarmat to the Defense Ministry. The ministry did not respond to a Reuters request for comment and has made no announcements about planned Sarmat tests in recent days.
The US and its allies are closely watching the development of Russia’s nuclear arsenal at a time when the war in Ukraine has pushed tensions between Moscow and the West to the most dangerous point in more than 60 years.
Since the beginning of the conflict, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal in the world and warned the West not to cross a line that could lead to nuclear war.
Repeated setbacks
The 35-meter-long RS-28 Sarmat, known in the West as Satan II, has a range of 18,000 kms and a launch weight of more than 208 tons. The Russian press claims that it can carry up to 16 nuclear warheads with independent targets, as well as Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, a new system that Putin has claimed is unrivaled by Russia’s enemies.
At one point, Russia said the Sarmat would be ready by 2018, replacing the Soviet-era SS-18, but the deployment date was repeatedly postponed.
Putin claimed in October 2023 that Russia had almost completed work on the missile. His defense minister at the time, Sergei Shoigu, said that the missile was ready to form “the basis of Russia’s ground-based strategic nuclear forces”.
According to Wright, an IISS analyst, a test failure does not necessarily mean that the Sarmat program is in danger.
“However, this is the fourth successive test failure of the Sarmat, which at the very least will further delay its already delayed entry into service and at most could raise doubts about the viability of the program,” he said.