Colombia: from “total peace” to “war” in CatatumboColombia: from “total peace” to “war” in Catatumbo

A resurgence of violence in the north-east of the country opens the debate on the failure of the peace negotiations proposed by Colombian President Gustavo Petro.

(DW) The violence that has erupted in the Catatumbo region, in northeastern Colombia, has resumed a routine of armed conflicts in the country and threatens to bring down Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” policy.

On January 16, the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group clashed with a dissident faction of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in various parts of the country, leaving civilian victims and 32,000 displaced.

In Catatumbo alone, on the border with Venezuela, at least 80 people were killed, including six of the signatories of the peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC in 2016. Another 20 were killed in Guaviare, a forest region in the south-east of the country.

The day after the attacks began, Petro ordered the suspension of peace talks with the guerrillas, which began under his government, and accused the ELN of committing “war crimes” by attacking civilians.

On Monday, the Colombian president declared a “state of internal commotion” and an “economic emergency” to curb the upsurge in violence. “The ELN has chosen the path of war and war it will have,” he wrote in X.

On Wednesday (22/01), Petro acknowledged the “failure” of negotiations with the guerrilla group and reactivated arrest orders against 31 ELN leaders, which had been suspended since 2022.

A worrying scenario in Cúcuta

So far, the government’s armed forces have not clashed with the guerrillas and have been working to rescue the population threatened by the conflict. Many are seeking refuge in the municipality of Cúcuta, in the Catatumbo region. Daniel Parra, a researcher at the Paz y Reconciliación foundation, sees a risky scenario for the city.

“It is undoubtedly serious, not only because Cúcuta has been the largest recipient of displaced people from Catatumbo, but also because there is a possibility – and this has gone unnoticed – that the war will reach Cúcuta and its metropolitan area.” He adds that there are also guerrilla units there, as well as those of the FARC’s dissident Front 33.

It is not yet clear what triggered the conflicts. “National media have said that, according to military intelligence sources, it all started with the loss of a cocaine shipment and the murder of an ELN financial chief,” Parra reports. “But we’re not sure what triggered this armed confrontation.”

Drug trafficking: fuel for the war

What is clear so far is the background to the clashes: control of drug trafficking routes. “The dispute over territorial control and drug trafficking, which have always been central elements in this conflict, are increasing the pressure in this region, which also borders Venezuela and is a corridor for drug trafficking,” points out Roberto García Alonso, a professor at the Faculty of Law and Political Science at the University of La Sabana in Colombia.

“For more than five years in a row, the department of Norte de Santander [where Catatumbo is located], and specifically the municipality of Tibú, has been among the places with the largest coca crops in the country. This has also undoubtedly fueled the war,” agrees Daniel Parra. A situation that he attributes, in part, to the failure of the National Program for the Substitution of Illicit Crops.

The Colombian president himself has said that the ELN is becoming a “narco-armed” organization. And it’s not the only one, according to García Alonso: “One of the main problems we have in this region is the very precarious institutional presence of the state. Various criminal organizations, including several ELN groups, as well as the FARC’s own dissidents, and criminal gangs, operate to control drug trafficking routes.”

Mistrust of the peace process

Since taking office in August 2022, Gustavo Petro has instituted a policy of “total peace” with all armed groups, including FARC dissidents and the ELN itself. His opponents accuse him of being lenient with the rebels, and claim that the organizations have grown stronger as a result.

“This violence can also be understood as a strategy by the armed groups to try to put pressure or gain positions at the future negotiating table,” proposes Professor García Alonso.

However, after the events of the last few days, the prospects for negotiation seem to have dissolved: “What is happening here is eroding what little popularity President Petro already has. Added to this is the fact that the policy of total peace is not yielding results. It will be necessary to see to what extent the government is willing to continue,” he adds.

For Daniel Parra, dialogue is still necessary: “Initially, President Petro had indicated that he would suspend negotiations with the ELN, and now we are surprised to see this declaration of war against the guerrillas. This worries us greatly, because an armed confrontation between guerrillas and public forces would only result in more victims.”

“The ELN has been engaged in armed struggle for more than 60 years, and it is clear that trying to eradicate this guerrilla through direct violence has not been an effective strategy for the government,” Parra concludes.

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